Analyzing Hamilton's Best Chance for a Ferrari Victory in 2026
Lewis Hamilton has yet to win a Grand Prix with Ferrari, but the numbers may reveal where his best chances lie in 2026. By examining his track history and Ferrari's comparative performance, we find which circuits hold the most promise.
With 105 Grand Prix victories under his belt, Lewis Hamilton's legacy in Formula 1 is well-established. Yet, despite his success, he hasn’t claimed victory with Ferrari. His last win came in the 2024 Belgian Grand Prix with Mercedes. After a podium-less 2025, Hamilton managed a third-place finish at the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix. Now, the question is: where might he finally stand atop the podium for Ferrari?
Our data team crunched the numbers to pinpoint the circuits where Hamilton and Ferrari have the best chance of victory. Two main factors were considered: Hamilton's historical win rates at various tracks and Ferrari's performance relative to current leaders Mercedes.
Starting with Hamilton's win rates, Silverstone tops the list. With a 45% win rate, it’s where Hamilton has been most successful, boasting nine victories out of 20 entries. Canada and Hungary also stand out, with win rates of 44% and 42%, respectively.
On the other hand, tracks like Miami, the Netherlands, and Las Vegas have been less kind to Hamilton. He has yet to win in Miami, achieving only mid-field finishes since the circuit's debut.
As for Ferrari, the data suggests their closest competition to Mercedes could occur in Monaco, with a negligible pace deficit of 0.06%. Hungary follows closely, where the gap is just 0.07%. Barcelona-Catalunya and Singapore also show promise, with deficits of 0.12%.
Conversely, Spa-Francorchamps and Monza look challenging for Ferrari, with deficits of 0.54% and 0.51%, respectively. Power unit sensitivity plays a significant role in these tracks' lower rankings for Ferrari.
Combining these insights, the Hungaroring emerges as Hamilton's best chance for a win, scoring 9.6 on the combined metric. Barcelona-Catalunya, Monaco, and Singapore also offer good prospects, scoring 8.2 and 8.1, respectively. Meanwhile, Spa ranks lowest, with Hamilton's past victories there offering little consolation given Ferrari's current form.
The upcoming European leg of the season could be critical, with Monaco and Barcelona approaching. Could Hamilton and Ferrari finally break their drought? The numbers suggest it’s a possibility worth watching.